Bloodgang,
Welcome to the sixteenth issue of Bloodgood’s notes. The idea of this newsletter is to give you an overview of the previous week’s fundamentals and what happened on charts as well as to remind you of this week’s articles, secret TA tips, and trading calls. Basically, it’s about giving you all the key info in one place.
Table of contents
- Fundamental overview
- Bitcoin and Ethereum chart
- Blood’s content recap
- Concluding notes
As this community grows, I have a duty to give back to all of you that helped me and supported me to become what I am. This free newsletter is just another way to share my experiences and prepare you for the journey that’s ahead of you.
Love,
Blood
Fundamental overview
If you’ve been keeping track of the news lately – or just generally not living under a rock for the past four days – you probably know what’s going to be the main point of the past week in terms of the macroeconomic outlook. A week ago, tensions between Russia and Ukraine were definitely apparent, but hardly anyone thought that the situation could escalate into a full-blown war. And yet, here we are.
War is a horrible thing, and we should all take a moment to reflect on its harsh reality and the very real suffering that it’s causing right now. If things escalate even further, that reality – or even an unimaginably worse one – could happen anywhere on the globe.
With that said, I won’t pretend to be an expert in the intricacies of geopolitics, so let’s get right to the markets. Surprisingly, the selloff on Thursday wasn’t that bad at all, and crypto held up quite well. While the S&P 500 gapped down 2.5% to a lower low compared to January 24th, Bitcoin managed to put in a higher low, only hitting a level 4% above the January low. Does this mean that the world is waking up to Bitcoin as digital gold? Well, not quite, but its recent strength does mean that it’s no longer simply trading like a tech stock.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin/Dollar Weekly chart
Bitcoin/Dollar Daily chart
Bitcoin dipped to $34k on the news of Russia invading Ukraine, only to bounce 16% in the same day.
Bitcoin is trading slightly above $38,000 at the time of writing. On the day that the war started we woke up to a bloodbath, creating a new higher low only to bounce back to previous levels by the end of the day. Bullish price action continued for the next couple of days until it got rejected at the $40k resistance.
From the weekly perspective we are still trading inside the weekly support zone which is a must hold zone in case we want to see new highs this year. Breaking below the weekly support zone (meaning losing $30k level) would indicate that we are revisiting low $20k levels.
In terms of trading, we are in a weird position and as a swing trader there are currently no good opportunities, especially with Russia-Ukraine uncertainties as well as the likely rate hikes in March. My trading plans remain unchanged, i still have my bids spread from $30k-$33k and i will be looking to short upon getting closer to $40,000 unless the fundamental situation changes and we get a monster green candle breaking through the resistance.
Ethereum
Ethereum/Dollar Daily chart
Ethereum/Bitcoin Daily chart
Ethereum is trading around the range high level, following Bitcoin’s price action.
I have been following the ETH price action for weeks now and you don’t have to be a mastermind to notice that it is not respecting any level but simply following Bitcoin’s movement. Although, looking at the ETH/BTC chart we can see that it is underperforming and trading in a downtrend, forming lower highs.
It seems like the next logical level would be 0.065 BTC which was defended at the end of January. Upon reaching that level we could think of swapping some Bitcoin for ETH in case we get a bounce there
In terms of trading I don’t think there is a level to currently keep your eyes on unless we start going towards the $2k level. In that case I would place bids around $1900 and spread them down to $1700.
Blood’s content recap
Macro bitcoin ranges
“Again so much drama around $BTC.
Bitcoin is in a beautiful accumulation range, which could last for another 2 weeks and after that we can expect a new impulse up.”
Bitcoin macro view
Concluding notes
There are a lot of uncertainties right now, and pretty much everything will depend on how the conflict in Ukraine unfolds. That said, it’s likely that the Fed will be much less hawkish in March, which is one important reason that the shock has been absorbed relatively well by the markets.
I’ll stick to the charts until there’s clear info on how the geopolitical events will progress, as the whole thing is full of uncertainties right now. At any rate, huge economic changes are taking place, and I do believe that decentralized, sound money will play a much bigger part in the new financial landscape.
